Reading into official government information, for clues about the future of the economy

•March 29, 2010 • Leave a Comment

While everyone from consumers to businesses to government is hoping for economic recovery, a consistent move to the upside has not been seen. Employment appears to be a difficult problem to solve.

The Fed and private economists are trying to answer the bigger question of why the labor market shed 8.4 million jobs during this recession. Although the downturn was the deepest since the Great Depression, the job losses were even more severe than most forecasters had predicted based on models that compare economic growth and employment. Bernanke offered two possible explanations. ”One is that maybe the recession was deeper than we thought,” he said.

Another reason that the economy appears better than it actually is could be that consumers are working for free. The Baltimore Sun article advises Americans to “..suspect the official economic statistics peddled by Washington. American workers boosted their hourly production per person by a phenomenal annual rate of 6.9 percent in the fourth quarter, if you believe this month’s Labor Department figures. But if the bean counters measured all the off-the-clock work that companies are foisting on their customers, the national performance might be a lot less impressive.”

What does he mean?

“Companies are asking, ‘How do we get consumers to do more work for us – for free?’ ” says Kent Grayson, an associate professor of marketing at Northwestern University. “And ‘How do we attract consumers that actually enjoy doing that extra work?’ But on the other side, they’re also asking, ‘How do we save on customer-service costs?’ One way to do that of course is to ask consumers to do more work.”

“The communications revolution seems to have pushed prosumption to a new height. It’s not just data entry, typesetting and bar-code scanning that have been taken over by unpaid or poorly paid consumers.

At National Instruments, based in Austin, Texas, nearly half the company’s research and development is done by customers collaborating in online communities, says Grayson, who has written about the prosumer movement.

Moms in Procter & Gamble’s Vocalpoint Web community hawk the company’s products in return for coupons. At Threadless.com, customers design T-shirts, Grayson says.”

Grayson rejects the idea that computers, the Web and cell phones have drastically boosted overall prosumption. Even as companies dished off some tasks to unpaid consumers, he says, they took other tasks over.

“Twenty-five or 30 years ago, there wasn’t the option to get premade Toll House cookies,” he says. “Or dough. We had to make our own dough. But now there are companies that do it for us. So who knows what the actual trade-off is? But I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a wash.” “Verizon signed me up as a broadband network technician. When the router or modem goes out on my Internet service (rare, it’s true), the guy who fixes it is me. I’m a data-entry clerk for Capital One. They make me key in my card number and other stuff when I call so they don’t have to. I check myself in for Southwest flights and serve as my own teller at M&T’s money dispenser. What’s next, running a cash register? Oh, yeah – I do that for Home Depot.”

Cities “on the brink” of failure, disaster

•March 26, 2010 • Leave a Comment

Miami FL and Gary IN could not be more different in their location and climate. But their budget crisis’s have much in common.

Miami could be on the verge of declaring a fiscal emergency — triggering a law requiring the city to notify the governor it’s in financial jeopardy, the city attorney warned Thursday.“We’re here paying for the sins of the past,” said Mayor Regalado, who as a commissioner voted to transfer the funds to balance those year-end budgets. Earlier this week, Migoya told commissioners his administration was preparing such a plan to be presented within 45 days. He said he has no issue with selling assets if the money is used to fatten up the reserve.

“There’s not a person in this state that can tell me or anybody else how you bail out Gary, Indiana,” Rep. Chet Dobis said. Critics smell blood, saying it’s time for Northwest Indiana’s largest city to die. If Gary fails, taxpayers outside the city will pay the price. ”You just don’t dissolve a city,” Scheele said. “The people don’t go away. The streets don’t go away. All of the infrastructure’s still there, and somebody’s got to take care of it.”  said. “The people don’t go away. The streets don’t go away. All of the infrastructure’s still there, and somebody’s got to take care of it.”

Property avalanche

•March 16, 2010 • Leave a Comment

In October of last year, I wrote that there may be as many as 7 million homes lurking in a “shadow inventory” waiting to pop out onto the market.

It looks like the mainstream media has caught up with this: “About 5 million to 7 million properties are potentiallyeligible for foreclosure but have not yet been repossessed and put up for sale. Some economists project it could take nearly three years before all these homes have been put on the market and purchased by new owners. And the number of pending foreclosures could grow much bigger over the coming year as more distressed borrowers become delinquent and then, if they can’t obtain mortgage relief, wade through the foreclosure process, which often takes more than a year to complete.”

If true, the new government program incentivising foreclosure could be expensive. “This latest program, which will allow owners to sell for less than they owe and will give them a little cash to speed them on their way, is one of the administration’s most aggressive attempts to grapple with a problem that has defied solutions.

Under the new program, the servicing bank, as with all modifications, will get $1,000. Another $1,000 can go toward a second loan, if there is one. And for the first time the government would give money to the distressed homeowners themselves. They will get $1,500 in “relocation assistance.
Some people are not so sure: “Short sales are “tailor-made for fraud,” said Thomas Lawler, a former executive at the mortgage finance company Fannie Mae.”

Drastic cuts in police/fire, and tax increases

•March 16, 2010 • Leave a Comment

Pension payouts are draining municipal budgets and dragging down services provided to residents. “The prospects are bleak…dramatic cuts in essential services, such as police and fire protection, health spending, education and infrastructure improvements, in order to cover ballooning pension payments.” Increased defaults on government debt and bankruptcy filings probably lie ahead, unsettling the $2.7 trillion municipal-bond market. The possibility of taxpayer revolts and likely insolvencies is severe.

Even

Elizabeth Warren, Chair of the Congressional Oversight panel over TARP, says that we have a serious problem with commercial real estate and it’s going to affect a significant number of banks.
“I am afraid. I’m afraid because of what I see in the real economy. I’m afraid because I don’t see books that are clean – balance sheets that have been cleaned up. I’m afraid because the toxic assets on the books of the banks are still there.”

At the same time, it looks like the deluge of commercial defaults has started:

“Commercial real estate owners are walking away from properties that have become untenable as investments, just as homeowners have walked away from houses they can no longer afford to pay off or sell. The latest commercial property owner to do this is Vornado Realty Trust (VNO), the $13 billion real estate investment trust, which warned last week that it would walk away from two loans totaling $235 million. The trend is likely to escalate in coming months as more loans mature and refinancing remains difficult and costly.”

“Another bigger crisis is inevitable” – Finance Commission

•March 3, 2010 • Leave a Comment

Another crisis – one that will be even worse than the current one – is looming, according to a new report from a group of leading economists, financiers, and former federal regulators. The report warns that the country is now immersed in a “doomsday cycle”.

“What will happen when the next shock hits? We may be nearing the stage where the answer will be – just as it was in the Great Depression – a calamitous global collapse.”

Frank Partnoy, a panelist from the University of San Diego, claims that “the balance sheets of most Wall Street banks are fiction.”

The Associated Press has officially labelled the economy a “Great Recession.” “It clearly is a shift in everyone’s perception of their financial and economic life,” said Orin Hargraves, a lexicographer. The term seemed to be in such wide use last year and so clearly understood that it was time to make it an official entry, the AP’s Minthorn said.

Economists are preparing for a deluge of commercial loan losses, which could be the trigger for a meltdown. “The COP is “deeply concerned” that commercial real estate losses could jeopardize the stability of these banks and the damage will contribute to prolonged weakness throughout the economy, according to chair Elizabeth Warren. “A big enough wave of commercial mortgage defaults would trigger economic damage that would touch the lives of every American,” Warren said.

Official: “The day of reckoning is here”

•March 1, 2010 • Leave a Comment

Municipal budgets have been a common subject on this blog. In fact, I expect that the first real crisis felt by most Americans will come from the effects of government budget cuts, and how they will impact services which people rely on.

Many inside local government are already seeing this looming crisis. Today’s example comes from Waterford CT. It is a textbook scenario of how this issue is playing out.”The day of reckoning is here,” the towns finance board member Georg Peteros said. After decades of huge tax payments from a regional nuclear power plant, the town still finds itself with a deficit, due to not planning for ever having lower revenues. “We really squandered an opportunity,” said First Selectman Tony Sheridan.

In the future, the town must address the largest expense in the budget: employee salaries and benefits. ”We’ve already squeezed all the fat out of the budget going after supplies,” he said. Peteros predicts that as town departments scramble for funds in future years, it could make Waterford a more politically charged town. ”I can see politics becoming more contentious as residents become more agitated as their tax rate goes up,” he said. “Dark days” are ahead, as he put it.

The White House is anticipating another blow to the economy when jobless figures are released on Friday. The administrations economic advisor, Larry Summers is trying to buy some time by pinning the results on the weather, asking Americans to ignore these figures.

“The blizzards that affected much of the country during the last month are likely to distort the statistics. So it’s going to be very important … to look past whatever the next figures are to gauge the underlying trends,” Summers said in an interview with CNBC.

What will the answer be if employment figures are still bad in March?

Does anyone think that the 2009 recovery was real?

•March 1, 2010 • Leave a Comment

As early as 2008, government an business leaders were pointing out signs that the Great Depression II was ending. There was talk of “green shoots” of recovery, stabilizing of the economy, and predictions of improved home sales, employment, and retail sales.

In 2009, any remotely positive move in any economic figure was a sure sign that everything was fine. The slightest upward blip on the radar screen magically erased all of the disaster of the past 5 years.

So how has this worked out. Well, for one thing it got consumers spending more money. Consumer spending was up in January, according to government figures.

” …consumer spending rose 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $10.3 trillion for the first month of 2010….”

But was this a good thing? During this same period, incomes actually fell.

“…..after-tax incomes fell 0.6% on the month, It was the largest decline in real disposable incomes since July, just after a one-time stimulus payment to seniors…….”

So while consumers had less money, they spent more. Isn’t this what got the economy into the whole mess to begin with?

So what about the the real estate market? It is improving, right? Well, maybe it was for a few seconds. Mortgage delinquencies are back on the upswing after a brief pause. According to Equifax, more homeowners are falling behind on their mortgages, jeopardizing the nascent housing recovery and raising the possibility that home prices have not found their bottom but could instead fall further.”Did we just see a headfake?” Equifax President Dann Adams asked. “Things looked really promising, but the January numbers say wait, there’s more to this story.” “This wasn’t just a small uptick,” More than 8 percent of homeowners were behind 30 days or more on their mortgage loans, up 4.4 percent from December 2009 and 21 percent from last January.

“The number of homeowners who are at least 90 or 120 days late on their mortgages also continues to rise, Adams said. ”There’s more foreclosures in the wings.” “There is a large segment of homes that are going to enter foreclosure in the next 3 to 6 months, which then puts more pressure on home prices”

Let’s see how the next batch of employment numbers looks.

 
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