Printed media in 2009
As human culture evolves, new developments are created, and old mechanisms disappear. Last month I wrote about 5 tangible items that will disappear over the next decade (shopping malls, granite countertops, etc.)
As technology and advancements in management systems find better ways of doing things than the status quo, certain methods and mechanisms of human existence will change as well. Many of these actually became obsolete years ago, but remained in practice only because of the excess capital available to support ideas that have outlived their usefulness. Sometimes it takes watershed events such as a severe recession to break the back of useless ideas, and put them to rest for good.
An obvious victim of cultural evolution is printed news and periodical content. The decline of newspaper readership is just a symptom of the cultural change. Newspapers magazines were developed as a distribution medium for daily and monthly information, and entertainment. The internet is a much more efficient and direct delivery system. The obvious benefits are immediate delivery of the content. A publisher can write an article and have it available to their readers in seconds, rather than waiting for the next press run. Stories can be updated and revised as new information is obtained. Magazines, which distribute a less urgent story content and more entertainment, are able to weave more robust media into the articles in the form of links, flash media, and video. These would not be available in a print format. Magazines can also publish content more frequently. Magazines such as Slate and Wired are famous for releasing stories outside of the regular monthly print schedule.
One advantage of a printed format is portability. A person can take a printed version of the Wall Street Journal to a 
coffee shop, or carry the current months issue of Cosmopolitan to the beach. Online versions do not lend themselves to this remote viewing. However, remote reader devices such Amazons Kindle and Sonys Reader can theoretically solve that problem. So far the only obstacle to wide use of these types of devices has been fine tuning of the style and functionality of the devices, and the cost. (These readers generally cost $300).
Notice that the cost barrier has not been an issue with Sony’s iPod, as apparently more people are interested in listening to music and watching videos than reading. These e-readers are able to download content instantly over cell airwaves, even when a computer and internet connection is not available. All of the New York Times best sellers are available, and many periodicals are on the system. If all magazines and newspapers would be available in these readers, it would eliminate the need for printed versions. There are still some marketplace issues to resolve such as the form factor (ugly) and pricing, but the technology is all there. Electronic readers do not have the same market reach as iPods, because of the lower percentage of Americans who read regularly. Everyone likes music, regardless of their IQ or education. Kids at Harvard and kids at XYZ community college are plugged into ipods. Not everyone likes books. The target market for the Kindle is limited to the more educated and motivated in our society.
So why do printed versions exist? For the time being advertising revenue has been sufficient to support the expensive process of printing millions of magazines and newspapers. Advertisers are retreating in droves, partially because of the declining economy, and partially because they are realizing that the advertising expense may not be justified by increased sales, even in more robust economies. Advertising page volume is off 25% in the industry, and even Conde Nast publishing is seeing declines of 30%. Advertising is only one aspect of the revenue stream in publishing, as subscriber costs add to gross sales. A typical business model of a print publication is to get the subscriber revenue to cover the fixed expenses such as production and publication, and ad revenue cover variable operating costs and profit.
Print media is seeing both revenue streams dry up as advertisers bail and subscribers find content through electronic media. What has been tough for publishers is to find ways to monetize electronic media. The New York Times tried paid online subscriptions, but that is a difficult sell except for some valuable business publications such as the Wall Street Journal.
Some online magazines collect ad revenue from online pages, but many advertisers are not eager to pay for online exposure. Some use a combination of advertising and limited content online to encourage print subscriptions.
Regardless, produced news and entertainment will always be a desirable product for consumers. The trick for media companies is to find a way to continue to provide quality content and be able to make a business out of it.
Regardless, the printed page of newspapers and magazines is likely to continue to decline. The complete elimination of printed media has been prematurely predicted many times. It has so far been delayed because of a remaining market for hard copies of magazines and newspapers, and enough ad revenue still coming in. Each month brings more newspaper crisis’. It was reported this week that The San Francisco Chronicle was going to shut down, wich would make it the largest US city without a daily newspaper. The Hartford Courant announced the layoff of 100 workers. The Courant is the oldest continuously published paper in the country, older that the country itself in fact. It started as a weekly paper in 1764, and it’s the newspaper in which George Washington placed an ad to lease part of his Mount Vernon land. During the Revolutionary War, The Courant had the largest circulation of any newspaper in the colonies and was an influential backer of the rebel cause. The Courant’s existence was considered so important to the war effort that when its paper mill was burned down – probably by Tories – the Connecticut legislature authorized a lottery to raise money to build a new mill. In the meantime, The Courant printed a few issues on wrapping paper.
Another sign of a transition from printed media to electronic delivery is the news that legendary columnist Liz Smith no longer be published in any New York tabloid, but will be writing a blog instead. Liz Smith has been writing columns in New York newspapers since the 1970′s.
Blogs and news abrogators such as Reddit and Digg may appear to be replacing the daily newspaper. However, both new media formats rely on reported news, which is still produced by traditional media.
